On March 18th 2022, the journal Veterinary Record published a peer-reviewed scientific paper with an analysis of the impact of badger culling on bovine TB in the High Risk area of England (see Langton et al. here). The authors were independent scientists; an ecologist and two vets. Using publicly available government data, the new paper had two main conclusions:
- Cattle-based measures implemented from 2010, and particularly the introduction of the annual tuberculin skin (SICCT) test were likely responsible for the slowing, levelling, peaking and decrease in bovine TB herd breakdowns in cattle in the High Risk Area (HRA) of England during the study period, all well before badger culling began to be rolled out in 2016.
- Multiple statistical models comparing culled and unculled areas failed to find any association between badger culling and either the incidence or prevalence of bovine TB in cattle herds.
A brief summary of the findings of the paper were blogged on the day it was published (here).
Having been given advance sight of the paper, Defra staff put in a huge effort to try to prevent it from being published (see here). Failing to stop its publication, they then went into overdrive to try to undermine the authors and their findings. Defra produced a blog making outrageous and frankly libelous claims, which criticized the content & motivation of those involved in writing, reviewing, and publishing the paper. Describing the authors as ‘anti-cull activists’, they said:
“This paper has been produced to fit a clear campaign agenda and manipulates data in a way that makes it impossible to see the actual effects of badger culling on reducing TB rates. It is disappointing to see it published in a scientific journal.”
And,
“Experienced scientists from the Government’s Animal and Plant Health Agency have reviewed the report and found its analysis is scientifically flawed. It has manipulated the data in a way that makes it hard to understand the actual effects of badger culling and therefore its conclusions are wrong. Today, the Chief Veterinary Officer, Christine Middlemiss, and Chief Scientific Adviser, Gideon Henderson, have also published a letter in Vet Record, which rebuts the report’s claims. The CVO has also written a blog about this.”
Christine Middlemiss and Gideon Henderson did indeed publish a letter (not peer reviewed) alongside the paper in Vet Record on the same day. They produced what was called an ‘alternative analysis’ in the form of a graph, and claimed it showed that badger culling was ‘working’ in reducing bTB in cattle. Shockingly however, no attempt was made in their letter to separate the effects of culling from the effects of additional cattle measures introduced around the same time. Extra cattle measures were sometimes introduced before and during badger culling in cull areas, less so in unculled areas.
The CVO Christine Middlemiss also posted a blog on the Defra website using the same graph and the same arguments, again failing to separate the effects of additional cattle measures, but promising this would be dealt with in the APHA publication analysis to follow. However, the promised APHA report on the Badger Control Policy, eventually published in 2024 (Birch et al 2024) also failed to properly separate confounding factors. This was a fundamental problem with the paper which rendered it unable to ascribe any disease benefit at all to badger culling.
Returning to the 2022 Vet Record Middlemiss/Henderson letter, it was clear that their graph could not be reconciled with publicly available data. There followed repeated requests for Defra to supply the data that they had used and their methodology. Then six weeks after publication, Defra sent an email to the authors of the original paper stating:
“Following your recent correspondence about how incidence in unculled area was calculated we have re-examined our analyses and discovered an error we wish to bring to your attention. The incidence in the area unculled throughout the period was calculated incorrectly. The incidence in cull areas is unchanged. We attach a corrected graph, with the corresponding data and workings as previously requested. We apologise for this error.”
BadgerCrowd blogged about this at the time (see here).
The 5th May 2022 ‘apology’ email from Defra mysteriously maintained that “this does not change the overall argument in the letter”. Defra did not respond to a reasoned criticism by the authors of their letter, published in Vet Record on 2nd April 2022 (see here), and refused a meeting to discuss it. A refusal that has been unhelpfully and unprofessionally maintained for the last four years.
On 23rd December 2025 (three and a half years later), and following repeated requests for removal of the abusive and offensive Defra media blog (offensive to all involved in the publishing process), a staff member emailed the lead author of the 2022 paper saying that there was:
“Agreement that the language and tone of the 18 March 2022 blog fell below an implicit expected standard, although it did not breach formal guidelines at the time. My recommendation is still for Defra to remove the blog in line with your request, if permitted to do so.”
However Defra also stated that this Defra media blog had not originated from the Henderson, Middlemiss or others in Defra/APHA, which seemed a bit suspicious. Who did write it then?
Now, four months on from that email and after lots of chasing, Defra have finally retracted their media blog, but not the CVO blog. That is still available online making flawed assumptions and misleading claims about the value of badger culling. Defra are still refusing to engage with the independent scientists, despite promises from the Minister in 2024 and throughout 2025, that they would.
No peer-reviewed scientific rebuttal to Langton et al (2022) has thus far been published.
Unfortunately, other government websites still present the public with flawed and out of date information. TBHub, the online information service produced by the government-funded farming industry promoter the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board, still presents incorrect and out-of-date science.
TbHub still bases its ‘facts’ on the flawed RBCT analysis which has now been shown to be equivocal at best (Torgerson et al 2024 and Torgerson et al 2025). It still uses out-of-date factsheets citing papers that are now shown to be based on flawed assumptions and implausible statistical methods. Many from the farming and veterinary industry still clamour for culling due to 25 years of Defra misinformation, with its chosen scientists still pointing to badgers as a significant problem. Defra agreed last December that TbHub website should be updated in line with recently published science, yet nothing has been done.
Why is everything so difficult. Why don’t government engage with independent stakeholders as the civil service guidelines require. Are they afraid of reprisals from industry if things have been wrong? So, is carrying on regardless the plan? No wonder industry is so confused across the British Isles.
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