New scientific paper shows that the badger cull was never going to work

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This website has been reporting on the legal challenges to the badger culling policy and licences, and the science that has supposedly supported it since 2019. Over that time, there have been many jaw-dropping moments; government interference in peer-reviewed science, government scientists getting their data wrong in published letters, Natural England claiming that culling has no effect on ecosystems and then desperately covering their tracks in the courts. The list goes on, and the story that has unfolded remains  truly shocking.

Professor Paul Torgerson, Chair, Veterinary Epidemiology, University of Zurich

But an even more dramatic sequel to this long-running saga is the new scientific paper published this week in Scientific Reports by Professor Paul Torgerson and colleagues including Badger Crowd’s Tom Langton. We will be posting a video presentation that will put this new work into context and demonstrate the massive impact that it should now have on Government bovine TB policy.

Why is this new study so important?

Because the government badger cull policy rests all but entirely on the conclusions from the Randomised Badger Culling Trial (RBCT). It is the science that DEFRA has used in court to defend their decisions to experiment with culling. The study is the original  peer-reviewed science that claims badger culling can reduce bTB in cattle; many subsequent studies are derivative from it, use the same flawed methodology, or suffer heavily from confirmation bias. I.e. they are subjective opinion that fails to prove that culling badgers causes disease reduction. However, benefits are claimed from culling when any benefits are, in reality likely from cattle measures. This is because such benefits are “predicted” from the results of the RBCT.

What does the new study say?

The new study re-examines data from the RBCT experiment using a range of statistical models. It concludes that most standard analytical options did not show any evidence to support an effect of badger culling on bovine TB in cattle. The statistical model selected for use in the original study in 2006 was one of the few models that did show an effect from badger culling. However, various criteria suggest that the original model was not an optimal model compared to other analytical options then available. The most likely explanation for the difference in result from the different analyses is that the RBCT proactive cull analysis ‘overfitted’ the data and used a non-standard method to control for disease exposure. The result is that the original model had a poor predictive value, i.e. it was not useful in predicting the results of badger culling. The more appropriate models in the latest study strongly suggest that badger culling does not bring about the disease reduction reported.

How might the RBCT scientists defend their decisions?

  1. The RBCT was a pre-planned analysis i.e. data was analysed in the way they said it would be before they started the trial, so it can’t be questioned.  This is not the case. There was a loosely described plan to compare rates of disease between culled and unculled areas. Their published analysis in fact compared counts of disease between culled and unculled areas. Would the conclusion of the RBCT analysis have been different  if incidence rates had been analysed correctly? Yes it would. Even if the data had been analysed according to any ‘pre-plan’, this would not preclude subsequent re-analysis using correct and more appropriate methods, except you might not do it if you believed rates had been used as was suggested in the paper.
  2. There is nothing wrong with using the model to calculate the number of herds (exposure). There may be circumstances in which a model may be sensibly used to calculate exposure. However, the original model used suggests that bTB herd incidents (a standard measure of new disease) is independent of the number of herds in a study area. That is, if the number of  herds in an area is doubled, the incidence does not change. This is not credible. Not least because the RBCT report (Table 5.4) showed that breakdowns doubled in cull and control areas over the period of study.
  3. You are just model dredging; i.e. you are just picking out the model that says what you want. The new study re-examined RBCT data using a range of statistical models (22 in total). Most of these show no evidence to support an effect of badger culling on bTB in cattle. The statistical model chosen by the RBCT study was one of the few models that did show an effect, but when tested in an accredited way, it is not an optimal model. The new paper is not guilty of  “model dredging”, it is the result of an attempt to find a robust analytical method that could support the claims of the RBCT

Why has this not been picked up before?

It does seem remarkable that the original RBCT a) got through peer review, and b) has not been challenged since. One reason might be the rather casual use of the words ‘rate’ and ‘count’ in the original paper, which implies that rate has been used in the model, whereas in fact an epidemiologically non-standard method was used to calculate a rate. Supplementary information in the original paper showed standard calculated ‘rates’ and the assumption could have been made that these were what was used in the model. They were not.

Interestingly, in the journal Biostatistics in 2010, two authors of the 2006 paper discussed approaches to using a range of statistical methods on a data set to compare their performance, and the choosing of a planned statistical approach that best complimented the subject matter.  They proposed that selection of a specific statistical approach may involve ’subtle considerations about the interplay between subject-matter and statistical aspects and the detailed nature of the data and its compilation.’ And with respect to the peer-review of results, they contend quite boldly: ‘the suggestion of requiring independent replication of specific statistical analyses as a general check before publication seems not merely unnecessary but a misuse of relatively scarce expertise.’

This may go some way towards understanding how problems with the original analysis were not picked up for such a long time. And it goes some way to explaining why there is such a reproducibility crisis in science.

The paper is open access. You can read it here.

The vigil of Betty Badger outside DEFRA offices in London

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Betty Badger (AKA Mary Barton) has stood outside Defra offices in Marsham Street every Thursday for over 7 years now. She has done it in all weathers, sometimes unbearably hot, sometimes soaking wet, sometimes freezing cold.

She is doing it to protest at the ongoing badger cull that has now killed over 230,000 badgers. She is doing it to raise awareness of the issue, and to make sure that this dreadful policy does not become considered as acceptable.  Because it’s not. She is doing it to make sure that the Defra employees who go in and out of the building are reminded that their badger cull policy, that they oversee, is causing huge suffering and depletion of native wildlife. She does it because she is so distraught about it, that she can’t NOT do it.

Sometime she gets words of encouragement, sometimes she gets verbal abuse. Occasionally she gets physical abuse.  Sometimes passing Defra employees reveal their complete ignorance of the science of bovine TB and badger culling by their comments to Betty. Occasionally a civil servant will approach Betty say “ I can’t talk to you because I would get into trouble, but thank you Betty for doing this and please carry on”

She has secured meetings with each Secretary of State for the Environment during her vigil (except for Therese Coffey), who have for the most part listened politely, but insisted the badger cull is the ‘right thing’ and pressed on with it.

Last year, as the political tide turned, she had a meeting with the Shadow Minister for Defra, Daniel Zeichner. He made positive noises, suggesting Labour would aim to get rid of bovine TB without culling badgers (not shown to work), but using cattle measures (known to work). He advised her that with Labour in government, Betty could have her Thursdays back: she wouldn’t need to stand outside Defra any more.

But here we are……..Betty is still outside Defra after all. Natural England have released information under Freedom of Information saying that up to  28 thousand badgers will be targeted this year. And this is despite the statement in the Labour Manifesto that culling badgers is ‘ineffective’ and will end.

Betty has read the science and thinks badgers have been framed.

Oxford – we have a problem……………50,000 people think so

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On Thursday 18th July, as Keir Starmer visited Blenheim Palace in Oxfordshire, the Oxfordshire Badger Group (OBG) presented a petition, with over 50,000 signatures to Oxford University School of Biology in central Oxford.

OBG called on Oxford University to own what it called “YOUR FLAWED SCIENCE” and asked them to “SPEAK OUT AGAINST BADGER EXTERMINATION.”

OBG press statements say that Oxford University is the birthplace of the Badger Culls. Scientists from Oxford, with others, designed, conducted and analysed data from the original Randomised Badger Culling Trial (1998-2005). It is the findings from this trial that DEFRA has used to claim that badgers have a substantial role in spreading bovine TB (bTB), and to justify killing badgers on an industrial scale. Since 2013, over 230,000 badgers have been slaughtered, most of them completely healthy adults and cubs. Cull zones now cover much of the west and central England. Badger populations are reported to be close to local extinction in some areas. Over 60% of Oxfordshire is covered by various cull areas, along with neighbouring counties, infected in more recent years by careless cattle movements.

Oxfordshire Badger Group say it has been pleading with Oxford scientists over the past year to use their influence in the badger cull debate. But the School of Biological Sciences has declined to engage in meaningful way, snubbing any chance of a serious dialogue.

OBG representatives said:

“We ask them to speak out against the misuse of their research. Keeping silent on one of the major animal welfare issues of the day is not scientifically principled. It allows DEFRA and Natural England to ignore new evidence and keep on culling regardless. Their silence is deadly for badgers, does not help farmers or cattle and is condemned by many members of the public. Our petition and open letter “Oxford University’s Scientists Must Speak Out Against Badger Extermination” now has over 50,000 signatures.”

The university scientists have said in correspondence that they have ‘no appetite’ to revisit the RBCT in the light of new evidence. They refuse to engage in what they see as a political rather than a scientific debate, which it is not – it is a scientific debate. Yet this is a pivotal moment. DEFRA are considering moving to ‘targeted culling’ with no credible evidence other that its’ pilot cull in Cumbria has failed.

The new Labour government manifesto states that badger culling is ‘ineffective’, yet is still allowing it to continue, even as government-funded scientific evidence against culling piles up. DEFRA’s own scientists analysed the overall impact of implementing a range of bTB control measures (cattle measures and badger culling combined). They did not find clear evidence to link culling badgers to a reduction in bovine TB (see section on Birch et al here). Yet the paper by Birch was widely and incorrectly reported as showing that culling badgers had reduced the incidence of bTB by 56%.

In April 2024, Natural England’s Director of Science advised against issuing supplementary cull (SBC) licences stating “Over the past few years, the balance of evidence has shifted….” and “….. farmers can avoid the considerable expense and inconvenience of undertaking the SBC without increasing the risk of their cattle suffering from bTB”. Officials overruled this advice and badgers are now being killed over the summer (including we believe Oxfordshire Cull Zone 49 which already had completed 4 years of intensive culling).

Professor David MacDonald reviewed the evidence base for the current cull policy for the Badger Trust in November 2023. He concluded “in 2023, much as in 2007, it is hard to see that killing badgers will make a meaningful contribution”. Sadly, his fellow scientists have chosen not to support this narrative.

An important new paper, “Absence of effects of widespread badger culling on tuberculosis in cattle” by Torgerson et al raises serious questions over the validity of the methods used to analyse the RBCT data. This study re-examined original RBCT data using a range of statistical models. It found that the RBCT analysis chose to use one of the very few models to show that culling had an effect on bTB herd incidence, and not in the way the paper had actually reported. The new paper concludes that the RBCT results are not reproducible and “there was insufficient evidence to conclude RBCT proactive badger culling affected bTB breakdown incidence”. In other words, the original Oxford study that underpins culling badgers is fully compromised. 

The RBCT was a politically charged, high profile research project that ran for 8 years and cost UK taxpayers ~£49 million. Perhaps the worst transgression in science is when you don’t admit that you are fallable. If you do admit oversights or mistakes, you are a good scientist. Badger Crowd supports OBG in calling for Oxford Scientists to pursue scientific rigour in acknowledging the new understanding of the science that has developed over the last few years and that changes the narrative. We ask that they join us in calling for an immediate end to the badger cull as they did in 2012 before it started and in 2015 before it was rolled out. Why not now, at the time when they predicted it would fail?

Eileen Anderson OBG Trustee said:

“It is horrible knowing that innocent badgers are being killed across Oxfordshire, in contradiction to the science and with so little concern for their lives or the survival of a native mammal.”

Linda Ward  OBG Trustee said:

“The scientists were reluctant to openly challenge the former Conservative governments pro-cull policy. But to continue to keep silent in the face of the emerging new evidence would be inexcusable and call their scientific integrity into question. In my view they need to either publicly defend their RBCT or accept that it’s findings are flawed.”

Julia Hammett Chair of Trustees said:

“Oxford University’s research has enabled the cattle industry to kill 230,000 badgers. DEFRA is openly ignoring the scientific evidence that culling is not associated with a measurable reduction in bTB. The eminent scientists who led the RBCT must demand that the government returns to robust, evidence based policies.”

Please speak up Oxford University. It’s well past time to stop the cruel, wasteful useless badger cull.

Labour and Badger Culling?

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In 2019, when Jeremy Corbyn was the leader of the Labour party, their manifesto stated clearly that, if elected, badger culling would stop. Labour under the leadership of Keir Starmer had a less clear position on badger culling, until Reform UK split the Conservative vote, and in the recent election manifesto it was said that Labour would “work with farmers and scientists on measures to eradicate Bovine TB, protecting livelihoods, so that we can end the ineffective badger cull”.

How will Labour work with farmers and scientists?

Since the election, Steve Reed, the new Secretary of State  for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, and Daniel Zeichner, the new Minister of State in the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, have been busy making their presence felt amongst the farming community. They seem to have been rubbing shoulders every other day with the NFU for the last two weeks, and yesterday (18th July) were at the National Farmers’ Union Summer Reception in Parliament in front of dozens of MPs, where Zeichner said:

“And I know the culling debate is a really, really hard one. Very, very contentious. Huge passion on both sides of the argument. But let me tell you, the Secretary of State has been clear: the current round of licences will be honoured. I absolutely believe we’re only going to eradicate bovine TB by working closely and constructively together to use all the science and everything that we’ve got to beat it. We are going to beat it. I tell you, I’ve already said to the department, that is my top priority. So, you have my assurance.”

So who will be working closely and constructively together? Zeichner is fulfilling his commitment to meet with industry representatives. How about meeting with the scientists? And other stakeholders shut out by Government for a decade or more? He may be talking to the scientists who have spent the last 20 odd years presenting work from their own Randomised Badger Culling Trials (RBCT) as the best evidence of the role of badgers in bovine TB, but they are definitely not talking to published scientists who have found that culling badgers has no role in the management of bovine TB in cattle (Langton et al 2022 and Torgerson et al 2024).

Are Labour taking ‘evidence’ from only one side of the debate and filtered through the lenses of civil servants? The civil servants seem to be doubling down to keep uncertain and flawed science that they have propped up for two decades. Will Labour keep in place the really dreadful  Bovine TB Partnership that is made up largely of those with the commercial interests of farming and cattle vets, to advise on badger culling. Mostly not scientists. With a new scientific paper out this week (here) that shows that there were no measurable effects of widespread badger culling on tuberculosis in cattle in the RBCT, will there be better thinking from Labour? Will they drop the unscientific inference (from Birch et al.) regarding the 56% reduction in breakdowns (2013-2020) being due to badger culling rather than from cattle testing? (See what Professor David MacDonald says about this here). If they will not stop culling now, with yet more science suggesting badger culling is ineffective, then when will they, and can the law let them?

Ineffective badger cull?

It was heartening to see in Labour’s manifesto that they agree that the badger cull is ineffective. It would have been good to see a little more detail on why this is their view. We would like to hear more on this. But surely, if culling is ineffective, it is illegal under Section 10 of the Protection of Badger Act 1992? Culling badgers would only be permitted under licence if it could prevent the spread of disease  – which it cannot if it is ineffective? So is Labour talking in riddles, or poised to backtrack and go back on its first manifesto pledge? We are about to find out.

We can end the ineffective badger cull?

‘We can end’ the ineffective badger culls’ they say, but when? Millions of people voted Labour because they hoped and believed that Labour would end the culls on coming into power. Why wouldn’t they, they are ineffective? Or do they believe they are effective, as Defra Vet Christine Middlemiss has been telling them, with the fake ‘56%’ nonsense that is now under legal challenge. Newly published science shows that there can be no measurable benefit from continuing culling. They cannot be continuing them because of contractual obligation to culling companies, because the Derbyshire cull that was cancelled in 2019 was legally challenged by the NFU, but the judge found that the government had a legal entitlement to make a political decision about culling. So they could make a political decision, and a scientific one, to stop all culling straight away if they wanted to. So why don’t they? This is now the big question that they need to answer next week before they pack up from Parliament for the summer.

Natural England refuses to stop licensing the badger cull

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Badger Crowd can today reveal a letter from Natural England, stating that despite the sickening killing of over 230,000 badgers since 2013, the Natural England Board intends to continue with the failed and ineffective badger culls across England over the next two years. This despite the change to a Labour Government. In its years in opposition, Labour pledged to end the badger culls. But instead, around 100 adult and young badgers on average will be shot every day between now and January 2025 under the direction of the NE Board who control the plans.

Steve Reed, new Environment Secretary for Labour has inherited the disastrous badger culling legacy

This was revealed in a letter repeating much of the material provided in a freedom of information release in May showing  how Defra want to keep culling to appease the livestock industry and because they think badger culling ‘works’. This is despite the complete  lack of supporting evidence, and with strong evidence to the contrary. Indeed, the new government called the badger culling policy ‘ineffective’ in its manifesto.

The old government position relies on the lies of Defra over the ridiculous, unprofessional, and discredited speculation that badger culling  has been shown to bring about a 56% reduction in bovine TB breakdowns (see ‘TB Testing and Transmission’ letter in Vet Record on Friday).

This is almost as ludicrous as the claim in 2013 that helped to start badger culling in the first place, i.e. that half of cattle-to-cattle breakdowns originate from badger infections – one of the great mysteriously uncontested travesties of modern veterinary epidemiology. It is based on flawed opinion and flawed analysis, promoted by government scientists and contractors to support government policy.  The result has been to support the vested interests that have dominated for two decades. But there was a clear-out at the political level on Thursday night in the 2024 General election.

While dozens of pro-blood sport MPs have lost their positions, entrenched civil servants are no doubt striving to bolster positions they have defended against public interest as a result of tribal behaviour (see here and here), by using the fear-factor that has characterised bovine TB policy.

Notably, Natural England speculate in their letter on how long it might take Defra to gear up for badger vaccination – another cattle disease reduction folly  – and talk about a supposed gap between hypothetical benefit effects that have not been shown to exist. Tainted science, based on poor advice.

These plans to continue culling are now under legal scrutiny. Badger Crowd calls on the new government to stand up and be counted on its promises, and not duped by the range of bad advice, information and opinions floating around from those with a conflict of interest and confused stakeholders. It’s time for the badger culls to stop

Legal pressure grows as end to ineffective badger culls anticipated

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This week yet more legal action is underway, seeking to end the failed badger culls. A Judicial Review Pre-Action Protocol Letter was sent to Natural England by the Badger Trust and Wild Justice,  challenging the issue and authorisation of 26 supplementary badger culling licences in mid-May of this year. This follows the shocking content of Freedom of Information releases obtained in May showing communications between DEFRA and Natural England since April of this year.

This action adds to two other ongoing judicial challenge applications, one of which was lodged today in the High Court, in relation to the recent consultation on the future of ‘badger control policy’ by Defra. This challenge claims that the Defra Consultation to introduce 100% badger culls (of a kind trialled in Cumbria since 2018), under control of the Defra Chief Vet, was unfair when it misrepresented scientific fact about badger culling efficacy to consultees. Other flaws are also highlighted in the challenge.

So how will things play out in the days and weeks to come?

Opinion polls now suggest a Labour government may be in place on Friday 5th July with a substantial majority of MPs in Parliament. Those following the history of badger culling could have expected that a swift and decisive end to the cull would be implemented with an incoming Labour government. A number of Labour MP’s and Shadow Ministers have stated that this is Labour’s intention in recent years. The Labour Manifesto launched last month stated that the badger culls have been “ineffective”, something that makes culling unlawful under the Protection of Badgers Act 1992, confirming that position.

However, last week Shadow Environment Minister Stephen Reed, who has recently been in meetings with the National Farmers Union, threw a surprise question mark over this on BBC Farming Today by saying there would be no ’hard stop’ to badger culling. The implication is that culling could continue for a further two years under existing licenses for Intensive, Supplementary and Low Risk Area culling in England. A terrible prospect for killing protected wildlife with its known inefficiency. How could that be possible?

Dynamics for new Government making the right decisions next week?

There are currently three legal actions underway.

Challenge 1. from Stephen Akrill.
Seeking permission for Judicial Review at the Court of Appeal.

A  legal challenge against badger culling in England was made in a personal capacity by Stephen Akrill from Derbyshire, against the Secretary of State (S/S) for Defra Steven Barclay. With a Judicial Review claim lodged on 14th November 2023, Barclay’s second day in office, Akrill is challenging the historic decision of SSEFRA from 2012 to issue licences to kill badgers under section 10(2) (a) of the Protection of Badgers Act 1992. The claim is that the S/S has acted upon flawed scientific advice that badger culling could influence the  spread of disease.  Akrill is seeking a quashing order to revoke all licences for badger culls issued by the Secretary of State. With a request to stay extant licences issued by the Secretary of State to kill badgers in 2024, pending the outcome of his application for Judicial Review.

This was the latest JR concerning badger culling since the judgement in Northern Ireland earlier this year where DAERA were ruled to have consulted unlawfully on a plan to mass-shoot badgers, and where detailed justifications were wrongly withheld. In short, this new JR claim contends that there is inadequate evidence to indicate that culling badgers can influence the spread of bovine tuberculosis in cattle.  The RBCT experiment was done under Crown immunity despite the Protection of Badgers Act 1992. This, argues Akrill, did not make any subsequent act of killing badgers lawful. While the 2006 RBCT paper was called the established science, Akrill’s argument also is that scientific protocol dictates that science only becomes  ‘established science’ once it is shown to be reproducible, not simply because it has been published. This is the science reproducibility argument.

At the Court of Appeal in London in mid-May, Akrill argued that culling badgers by industry without clear reason, and effectively as an experiment,  was potentially a criminal offence. Akrill gave two recent examples where evidence suggested  non-reproducibility of the RBCT experiment and suggested that the industry led culls had been unlawful from the start of in 2012. Thus, he claims the rolling offence was an error on the part of the decision maker each time culling had occurred, as decided by the S/S, and so remains unlawful.

A related argument was that scientific opinion does not constitute science – specifically it does not overrule the basic premise that science should be reproducible to be safe. On that basis, the Defra CSA and CVO opinion on recent evidence is not sufficient for the S/S to base decisions on. The case continues, and now due to the snap election, will apply to the incoming Government.

Challenge 2. from Tom Langton supported by
Badger Crowd and Protect the Wild.
Challenge to the March 14th consultation on targeted culling.

This is a legal challenge to the Defra consultation on targeted badger culling proposals that ran from March 14th to 13th May 2024.

A PAP response was received from Defra in mid-June and the case application was lodged at the High Court today, 3rd July. It challenges the fairness of the consultation on three Grounds:

1) that it made misleading claims preventing intelligent consideration
2) that it omitted key information on ecological impacts and
3) it omitted information on the likely economic benefits of the proposed policy.

The government’s position has shifted from saying badger culling caused the disease benefit in cattle, to one where they think it helped, but the detail is fuzzy and not backed by evidence. This is not a good position for the government who needed to come up with some evidence that killing 230,000 badgers (and counting) was worthwhile. They have failed to do this due to weak analysis and are now called out for exaggerating to the public.

Challenge 3. from Badger Trust and Wild Justice.
Challenge to the authorisation and reauthorisation of Supplementary Badger Cull (SBC) licences.

The pre-action letter challenges the SBC licences that aim to shoot thousands more badgers from 1st June 2024 and in the next six months of the new Parliament. Also next year  between June 2025 and January 2026. This is more and more ineffective culling of tens of thousands of mainly completely healthy badgers for no good purpose.

Based on the information obtained by Tom Langton from Natural England this May, Badger Trust and Wild Justice have together sent a pre-action protocol letter to Natural England and the Secretary of State for Defra to stop the supplementary badger culls continuing.  This year, as usual, the supplementary culls started on 1 June. The challenge aims  to stop the cull immediately because the advice of Natural England’s own Director of Science (not to cull badgers) was wrongly overruled. The action could lead to the two organisations applying for a full Judicial Review. Natural England has been given until 15 July 2024 to respond and to halt the 26 supplementary culls.

The view is that Natural England, led by Tony Juniper and the Natural England Board, were wrong to overrule Director of Science at NE Peter Brotherton, who felt SBC could no longer be justified. Release of crucial information showed how a Defra official had pressurised NE with advice from  Animal And Plant Agency’s Christine Middlemiss (the Chief Veterinary Officer), to carry on culling in order to meet cull company and livestock industry expectations, and to sustain the so-called benefits that Defra have failed to show exist. The fundamental reasoning behind the decision was inadequate and unlawful.

Why a ‘hard stop’ to badger culling is actually warranted now

The time is right to bring an end to all badger culling.  As things stand, Natural England may also maintain its plans to continue to ‘cull by stealth’ this year (as it has done for several years) using ‘cull extensions’ to kill more and more badgers over hundreds of square kms, by secretly expanding the edges of existing cull areas. Further, in mid-August 2024, just six weeks away from now, over 20 further areas of 4-year culls could be re-authorised by Natural England for the autumn bloodbath to continue.

Scientific analysis has shown these intensive culls to be ineffective. There is no better time for a full-stop, and a new policy to be formed with a change of approach.

What about industry objection to culling ending?

Back in 2019, the government took a decision to stop the first Derbyshire badger cull before it started due to inadequate preparation on the distance standoff between badger culling and badger vaccination areas, that had not been properly thought through. NE paid compensation to the cull company involved for late notification of that decision. However, when NFU took High Court legal action against the government over the decision, the judge indicated that the government had a political prerogative to take such a decision.

A decision to cancel the culls in 2024 would surely follow the same outlook. And in any case, compensation paid to farmers for loss of set-up costs would be less than the cost of government spending on managing ineffective  culls. It would ultimately be a logical, cost-saving decision preventing waste and cruelty.

While the new government might be wary of not doing what some pro-cull rural voters want before an election, there are many more voters (rural and non-rural) who oppose culling, and who will support bringing it to an end. It is true that badger culling retains heavy support amongst niche livestock sectors, fuelled by government misinformation as to its value. The new NFU President has re-iterated his views on the need for badger culling to continue. But this support is misplaced, a result of a relentless campaign of poor information aimed at blaming for badgers for a significant role in the spread of bovine TB, based on weak and misquoted science. The position of Labour on the science of badgers and bTB is likely to consolidate with investigations into maladministration since 2010, and that is what should follow the decision to end badger culling for good very soon. In which case these costly legal actions need not proceed.

PM Sunak contradicts his legal position on badger culling. Further Labour comments reported too.

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On 18th June, the BBC ran a story about Rishi Sunak on the election trail at an event In North Devon, where he was asked a question about his intentions concerning badger culling, should he remain Prime Minister.

Badger culling was not mentioned in the Conservative manifesto, but he laid his cards on the table, answering “culls have to be part of the solution”. The BBC wrote, “Mr Sunak said bTB outbreaks are at their lowest in 20 years and “part of that is because of the success of the badger culls.” The statement was confirmed by a video tape released by Farmers Guardian on the same day.

Sunak went on to say that “badger culls have brought down TB by just over 50%. That shows that the culls are working.” This despite the ink being hardly dry on a legal letter from Defra admitting that decline in TB cannot be attributed to badger culling and that not too much should be read into the Secretary of State saying so in the foreword of the recent consultation! This is a key point in the legal challenge that will move forwards shortly.

The current Government badger culling is based on the APHA’s publication Birch et al. (2024), published February this year. However, Mr Sunak is wrong to attribute reduction of disease incidence to badger culling. The new publication does not do this. Authors of Birch acknowledge (on careful reading) that the overall result cannot be attributed to badger culling: all disease measures implemented, including extensive testing, were analysed together. Crucially the expected comparison of culled and unculled areas was missing making the study of low or arguably no inference, given there was also some key missing information and over-simplifications. It is more likely that the cattle measures are causing reduction in disease than badger culling, because decline began well before culling was rolled out and in response to the introduction of annual SICCT testing in 2010. Other cattle-based  measures were also introduced alongside culling.

Likewise, the BBC which has extensive ‘previous’ with mis-reporting of the badger culls, was wrong to state (again presumably from Birch et al) that badger culling cut bTB breakdowns by 56% after four years. A 56% reduction cannot be attributed to badger culling, as explained above, because that study was not designed to and was incapable of asking that question.

Mr Sunak said the Conservatives were “the only party at this election” committed to maintaining the cull. If this is the case, his seems to be the only party prepared to consistently misinterpret the science and misinform others about it.

Today the I News has mentioned what Labour might do, claiming culling might not be ended this year and also misquoting the Birch paper – you can see what a good job the government have done on fooling the media – good evidence for the legal challenge to the Consultation.

The outlet teased:

“i understands a Labour government will not interfere with existing contracts to carry out culling“

and that a Labour spokesman said:“

“The next Labour Government is committing to ending the badger cull and eradicating TB. We will work with farmers and scientists to introduce a TB eradication package rolling out vaccination, herd management and biosecurity programs to protect farmers’ livelihoods so we can end the killing of badgers.”

Is this a row-back on the earlier statement about the cull being ineffective? Difficult to say without clear evidence. What can be said is that a letter was sent today to Natural England and Defra asking for the the May licences and authorisations to be immediately revoked and for intensive culling to be ended too. After all, if they are ineffective as stated last week, they are unlawful.

Vote Labour, Vote Badger?

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As demonstrated by the above, a vote for Labour now looks in the very best interest of farmers, cows, badgers, and all the other wild and domestic animals that develop bovine tuberculosis.

Why? Because a Labour Party  source quoted in the Daily Telegraph last week has confirmed that a ‘new Bovine TB eradication package’ would be developed by Labour if they win the upcoming General Election. It will prioritise eradicating bovine TB through vaccinations, herd management and biosecurity.

Last week they called the badger culls ineffective, based on published peer reviewed scientific evidence. This is a vital key step forwards. It signals the likely dropping of the current DEFRA  policy consultation proposals which are not to phase out badger culling as previously indicated by the 2020 policy. There should now be a fresh plan following the General  Election, that Labour are strong favourites to win with a working majority. Labour’s reported statement that they are confident about ending the badger culls will come into sharp focus on day-one of their term in office, as an ‘ineffective cull’ is unlawful under the Protection of Badgers Act 1992, and Labour is  “..confident that we can end the cull..” . This is sending strong signals to supporters who will expecting prompt action from 5th July.

Sadly, the farming industry has misread the published science. Their public statements, like those of Defra Ministers, suggest that the recent APHA study shows badger culling brought bovine TB down. This has not been shown. The study incorrectly describes gamma testing and other test tightening that occurred alongside  badger culling during the key four year period described. It was actually an analysis of a policy of extensive cattle measures and badger culling combined; the effect of badger culling alone was not measured due to the type of analysis used, which was a very weak one. The result of all the misleading coverage in the farming press, is that most farmers have been misinformed about badger cull efficacy..

Prompt action towards a scientifically sound and effective new bTB policy will be needed, as the legal challenge of DEFRA’s seriously flawed March 14th policy Consultation will be in full swing by the first day of the new parliament. This will be a considerable task.

Legal communications with Defra in recent days confirm this potential. Defra say:  “… it is unlikely that any decision would be made in relation to the proposals contained in the Consultation until early August 2024 at the earliest. Furthermore, the fact of a general election gives rise to the possibility that there will be changes in Ministers or government and that currently proposed policies may be revisited in any event.”

So the civil servants, many of whom have stuck loyally to political masters in the face of crumbling evidence on badger cull efficacy, are already preparing for change if the current Conservative government fails to be re-elected.  

An ineffective badger cull should lead to the recall of  supplementary culling licences recently issued by Natural England, and a curtailment of the final years of intensive culling (that would otherwise end in 2025/6). But Labour will have a dilemma, because the farming sector representatives such as the NFU may have said they will challenge that legally. However, the Derbyshire cull area postponement case in 2019 suggests that would be futile. If the new policy was judged to be a political decision backed up by the latest science, it would stand little chance.

Hopefully this July can see a new broom sweep away the vested interests in the BTB Partnership and get the right people working on real solutions to end the ruinously expensive polices we have seen since 2010. Saving public money, saving  heartache, saving lives, stopping cruelty.

Furthermore, data suggests that 80 per cent of rural communities want an end to the rural hooliganism of trail hunting where badger setts and other burrows used by badgers are blocked or assaulted by out of control dogs

Roll on the election……….

This General Election, please campaign locally to help STOP the badger culls.

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It’s just three weeks until polling day for the General Election. We need badger supporters to step up once again, and  to alert parliamentary candidates to the ongoing outrageous badger culls. There are two things to do:

Firstly contact your constituency candidates and ask them if they will stop the culls, if they are elected. You can find out who they are here. The Green Party have said they will stop badger culling, and Labour say they will “work with farmers and scientists on measures to eradicate Bovine TB, protecting livelihoods, so that we can end the ineffective badger cull”.  Please ask them all what their plans are and make sure they know that all forms of culling should stop from July 5th, with all existing licences revoked.

Secondly, please try to attend hustings. These are the political meetings that are held locally in your constituency, where you can meet your candidates, supply relevant information and ask them questions. Find out  where and when the hustings meetings are and make every effort to attend. Click HERE for access to a leaflet that can help give you guidance with facts about badger culling, carefully prepared by a team of dedicated badgerists from around the UK. You can print it out double-sided on A4, then guillotine in half to make A5 leaflets. (You may have to print on one side of the paper first, then reload it in the paper cassette the other way up & run through the printer again).



Good luck in your constituency. We hope newly elected MPs will be caring and compassionate and understand that on badger culling, much science has been questionable or misrepresented to promote badger culling.

We must stop the Cruel, Expensive culls. They Just Don’t Work.

Defra’s zombie killing machine won’t stop

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DEFRA don’t want to vaccinate badgers, they want to keep killing them, against advice from Natural England.

As the first badgers of summer 2024 are being killed outright by a shot to the heart, or scream and die slowly in pain, a Freedom of Information response released on 31st May has revealed a morass of Government confusion. Communications between Defra and Natural England  from April and May of this year show DEFRA contriving to carry on culling. By aligning with the views of its highly controlled ‘BTB Partnership’, and stalling the promised badger vaccination programme, that they have had four years to prepare for.

Dr Peter Brotherton’s (Director of Science at Natural England) advice in April, (see here), a response by Defra in early May (here), and final decision by NE (here) tell the story. NE’s response to the recent policy consultation (here), is also very revealing. Brotherton gives NE’s view on Supplementary Badger Culling (SBC) that are done after 4-years of Intensive culling, is that badger vaccination should be the best option to promote, based upon his view of the available scientific evidence :

“I can find no justification for authorising further supplementary badger culls in 2024 for the purpose of preventing the spread of disease and recommend against doing so.”

However, on 1st May, Sally Randall who is the Director General for Food, Biosecurity and Trade for DEFRA responded saying:

“The experience of the last three years has shown that whatever changes are made to disease control, those most affected by the disease, must have confidence in both the process and the trajectory. Changes need to be carefully timed and communicated, whilst balancing a range of potentially opposing views. Any abrupt changes to policy would seriously undermine our ability to engage constructively with the industry on future disease control interventions.”

The letter included an Annex A. with advice from APHA and the Chief Veterinary Officer, stating that Defra’s view was that SBC should continue until badger vaccination was fully viable, and that would take an unspecified amount of time. DEFRA said it had not gone far enough with preparations and that there was no financial capacity to promote it. They implied that farmers didn’t want it either. Then just two days later on 3rd May, Oliver Harmar, Natural England Chief Operating Officer, responsible for badger cull licensing at Natural England, decided to grant nine new Supplementary Badger Control licences and to authorise seventeen existing SBC licences in 2024, the decision having been passed by Tony Juniper and the NE Board. The licences were issued around mid-May.

But of equal importance, Brotherton made the following remarks:

“As I have said in previous advice, much greater effort is needed to raise awareness of the disease reduction benefits of the alternatives to culling among the farmer community, in my opinion. In this regard, it is disappointing that the recent publication by Birch et al. 2024 has been widely reported as providing evidence that badger culling reduces the incidence of bTB by 56%, when in fact the study shows the overall impact of implementing a range of bTB control measures, not culling alone. Further research to establish the relative disease reduction contributions of the different control measures is needed.”

This of course is the point made problematic by the crude and misleading ‘Abstract’ at the start of the APHA draft report (here) and following on with the published version (here). The recent Defra consultation on introducing so-called ‘targeted culling’ claimed that badger culling was responsible for herd incidence reduction, although it had no evidence of this. Brotherton is therefore disappointed by Steve Barclay, the Secretary of State for Defra and Defra Minister Douglas Miller and previous Defra Ministers. They have all seriously misled the public with badger cull claims and this is now a matter for legal consideration. Reductions in herd breakdowns could all have been down to tighter cattle testing and the accepted published peer reviewed and uncontested science on changes to herd incidence peaking and falling before badger culling was rolled out – and shown at the County level (2013-2019) suggests that this is most likely the case (see Langton, Jones and McGill 2022).

In previous High Court challenges over the future of badger culling, the ruling has been that decisions on culling can also be political decisions. If the future of badger culling is to be based on the science, then we will be seeing an end to culling very soon. Intensive, Supplementary, Low Risk Area, and Targeted culling are mistakes that should, and will be seen as such, and confined to the past.

While the disease benefit of badger vaccination is (like badger culling) not proven, the benefits of tighter cattle testing are well established. It is cattle measures done properly that will deliver the much needed bovine tuberculosis disease control for Britain and Ireland.

On 5 July the new Government must focus on advanced cattle testing, quarantines and lockdowns and consign badger culling to history, where it belongs.

Defra scraps pre-election badger cull ambition

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There has been a positive step forward.

Defra have responded this afternoon about how they are handling Tom Langton’s legal challenge to the recent badger culling consultation, that closed just before the General Election was announced last week. A Pre-Action Protocol letter challenged the lawfulness of Defra’s  ‘targeted badger intervention’ policy consultation for several reasons and today Defra were responding about their intentions in the weeks to come.

Defra said they are “continuing to analyse consultation responses with a view to putting proposals for a decision on this policy to the incoming government after the election.”

This is good news at least in the short term. A new policy will not be put in place by the current Conservative government. But it also implies that Defra may seek to defend the claim that the consultation was unfair, which is disappointing.

Defra also say that they want an extra two weeks to consider the PAP letter, but we will learn their position on 14th June. Defra should drop the consultation,  recognise its failings and accept that badger culling has no future at all in bovine tuberculosis control in cattle.