Today the Daily Mail lifts the lid on Defra’s attempts to interfere with scientific progress (here).
Defra were caught out by freedom of information (FOI) disclosures, leaning heavily on Veterinary Record journal staff, and using emotive language, over an accepted academic manuscript. This new scientific paper analysed the governments own bovine TB and badger culling data. It was published by independent researchers on 18th March (see here).
Defra lashed out in an extraordinary way at the authors, peer-reviewers and journal staff via a media blog and made half-baked attempts at manufacturing graphs using selective bits of (incorrectly calculated) data pushing what they wanted to see. They reached a new low level in efforts to keep badger culling going to prop up the failed policy. Their science and statistics is all over the place and they then refused to communicate over their embarrassment. Defra staff are now in bunker mentality with their advisers unable to help.
It should be all-over for badger culling – will the Defra, APHA and Natural England blinkers remain on, or will we see the change that the new science demands?
A new article for BBC Wildlife Magazine by James Fair takes a look at newly published peer reviewed research that concludes that the badger cull isn’t working. It’s worth a read because it puts the new analysis into the context of the historical background of bTB and the previous analyses of the results of badger culling.
It is of note that the conclusions of the Independent Scientific Group (ISG) in 2007 are mirrored by the conclusions of the latest study;
ISG: “After careful consideration of all the RBCT and other data, including an economic assessment, we conclude that badger culling cannot meaningfully contribute to the future control of cattle TB in Britain,”
And
Langton, Jones and McGill 2022: “This examination of government data obtained over a wide area and a long time period failed to identify a meaningful effect of badger culling on bTB in English cattle herds.”
Despite this confirmation of the expected & predictable results of nine years of badger culling, Defra (Chief Vet & Chief Scientific Adviser) have kicked back strongly with accusations of partiality on the part of the authors. This is somewhat ironic as (nearly) all published English bovine TB science to-date has been published by Defra or their funded contractors. Commentary on the paper via the Science Media Centre was supplied by two recipients of Defra contracts who are or have been heavily engaged in bTB policy.
The paper’s authors are still waiting for a reply to their request for an explanation of how Defra manipulated data in their un-peer reviewed rebuttal analysis letter, published in Vet Record, which claims to show culling does reduce bTB in cattle.
A new scientific paper published in Veterinary Record today 18th March 2022 analyses government data on bovine tuberculosis (bTB) collected by farmers and vets for a decade. It has been made available on open access here.
It is quite a lengthy paper, and although much of the presentation is straightforward, the statistical parts in particular are highly specialised. We’ve put together a short summary of the papers’ findings, to show what is most important.
There are two main findings. The first is really good news for farmers, cows and badgers. Data suggests that the cattle-based measures implemented from 2010, and particularly the introduction of the annual tuberculin skin (SICCT) test are responsible for the slowing, levelling peaking and decrease in bovine TB in cattle in the High Risk Area (HRA) of England during the study period, all well before badger culling was rolled out in 2016.
Tuberculin skin tests have decreased bovine TB by around 6% per year in the High Risk Area since 2015, arrows depict start of badger culling
Cattle-based measures also include other controls and measures such as improved hygiene and the use of interferon-gamma testing as a supplement. The downside of the SICCT test however is that it has a relatively low sensitivity; this means it can miss up to 50% of true positive cases. One in seven ‘cleared‘ cattle herds, is not free from bTB, perpetuating the crisis as they are traded and infect new herds. In other words, testing and movement controls need to be further improved to root out the undetected reservoir of disease that remains hidden and undiagnosed in cattle. Cattle measures have brought bTB down by 33% over the last five years and should continue to cause a drop in rates. Declines will slow and stop however as they have in Republic of Ireland without tighter controls and use of new generation testing, as with the ‘Gatcombe’. protocol,
The second finding came from a look at the amount of cattle bTB in areas that had undergone a badger cull and compared it with the amount of disease in areas that had not had culling. This was done over a six year period 2013-2019, so before and after culling was rolled out. Multiple statistical models checked the data on herd breakdowns over time and failed to find any association between badger culling and either the incidence or prevalence of bovine TB in cattle herds. Badger culling efforts appear to be to no effect.
Results showed that that heavily culled counties, culled for longer, had similar disease change patterns to counties culled for just a year or two more recently. Breakdowns peaked on average in 2015, with reductions thereafter. As previously stated, this is well before the badger culls were rolled out in 2016. The analyses do not provide any evidence for the efficacy of badger culling as a bTB control intervention. The results are consistent with predictions by the earlier scientific reference study (RBCT) that badger culling can make no meaningful contribution to the control of bTB in cattle.
Wildlife, farmer money and effort all wasted by the badger culling since 2013
Further, although Defra keep the data based on each badger cull area secret for reasons that are not in the public interest, and in defiance of multiple rulings by the Information Commission, they do claim to have additional data that may be of use in analysis. This may include the number of badgers for which money has been claimed in each cull area.
It is strange that since the legal cases in 2018 when Defra pleaded to the effect that they would ‘adapt (their policy) and learn’, no learning in the form of reporting has been published, which defies legitimate expectations. Is this because their data says badger culling is working? It seems highly unlikely. It seems more likely that it suggests it is not working, which may be why nothing credible has been said about the four years of data since the report on 2013-2017.
Badger Crowd understands that letters will be sent to the government asking them to explain the scientific reasoning behind the decision to phase down Intensive ( 70 %) badger culling in favour of ‘Epi’ (100%) badger culling. Also, asking them to bring the cruel ineffective £100 million badger culls to an immediate and complete end this year as they should have done based on the data and views exchanged with them in March 2021 that were dismissed to allow the killing of an estimated 50,000 badgers last year.
