Surely Ireland is not serious about a Test Vaccinate Remove policy for badgers?
It is difficult to believe, but the vets of Dublin and Belfast now appear to be using far-fetched claims from New Zealand to justify a cross-border lethal badger intervention ‘experiment’. Using ‘joint Ireland funding’, a programme of ‘Test Vaccinate Remove’ (TVR) is to be implemented in an attempt to control bovine TB (bTB) in cattle in Ireland. (See BBC media coverage here and here, Derry Journal here, ITV here, and RTE here).
It was well over a decade ago that Defra Minister Owen Paterson visited New Zealand to look at bTB control methods and came back determined that England should instigate a badger cull. This was despite huge differences between the two countries and species involved, and a lack of competent epidemiological study.
The claimed wildlife vectors in New Zealand included brushtail opossum, a non-native largely arboreal animal with completely different habitats and behaviour to badgers in England. The first problem was that NZ’s mass poisoning of possums can not eradicate the species, but it can and did inhumanely devastate many native species as collateral damage. The poison used, sodium fluoroacetate (known as 1080), is highly toxic to mammals and insects and other wildlife and its controversial use to reduce introduced non-native animals has persisted since the 1950’s.
The reality is that studies and reviews showed that bTB levels only fell in New Zealand once effective cattle testing and movement control was adopted by farmers. While infected possums were found on farms, the transmissions routes from possum to cow, were potentially plausible, but unproven. Outbreaks were linked most strongly and not surprisingly to frequent trading of infected stock. As bTB in cattle was tackled, prevalence levels in possums fell, suggesting a spillover relationship had existed. It had been inadequate livestock management sustaining the disease all along.
In 2013, despite the huge uncertainty around the efficacy of an intensive badger cull, then Prime Minister David Cameron claimed that it was ‘the right thing to do’ in England. This expression seems to wheeled out by politicians when they want to implement a drastic policy for which there really isn’t enough evidence, but because they want it badly, they do it anyway.
So the war against badgers began. Over decade later, more than a quarter of a million badgers have been killed. Despite their extensive staffing and data resources however, Defra have been unable to provide any credible or clear evidence that culling has contributed to the reduction in levels of cattle herd TB incidence, or prevalence. Have they hidden evidence that it has not resulted in any benefit? Overall prevalence of bTB in cattle remains high and targets have been missed. The 2038 eradication hopes have been all but abandoned on current trajectory. Those senior staff who facilitated culling, some of whom have now left, are still disinclined to talk about it.
Raising this false comparison with New Zealand once again is astonishing. The distorted history of the policy of possum control in NZ is again being used to justify a form of badger cull. The TVR ‘experiment’ is likely to progress to full culling according to current design. There has been no reference to recent correction of the science (see here and here) that shows that badger culling has historically shown no statistically significant disease benefit to cattle. Spin doctors rather than the scientists have the loudest voice.
Why would they do this? Is it because those vets and vet researchers involved have for so long been telling a narrative about possums and badgers, that is now impossible for them to change direction? Go with the flow, collect your pension and disappear? With the single major study of badger culling, the RBCT, now unable to credibly show any disease benefit from culling cattle, surely the obvious thing to do would be to reconsider with intense urgency the underperforming cattle tests and movement controls?
Or is it just too embarrassing and costly in terms of stakeholder response to admit to the failed thinking has been the bedrock of Irish policy to-date? A large study published last week shows no benefits are visible in terms of reduced herd risk after 8 years of culling and vaccination in RoI. How much of a fail do you need before you realise you have been playing with wrong beliefs? Playing Possum may help you survive, but only for the moment. Plenty of work for the lawyers ahead.