New study reveals badger culling efficacy for bovine TB control in cattle is a “statistical illusion”

A groundbreaking computational study has challenged the scientific foundation of the large-scale wildlife culling programme used to control bovine TB in England since 2013, and elsewhere. The research reveals that previously reported benefits of wildlife culling from the Randomised Badger Culling Trial (RBCT) are entirely statistical artifacts resulting from highly selective mathematical modelling and diagnostic errors.

Published on bioRxiv by Professor Paul R.Torgerson from the University of Zurich, the new preprint demonstrates that decades of costly wildlife culling assumptions do not withstand rigorous mathematical scrutiny.

Key Findings

Statistical Artifacts: The RBCT trial data is re-evaluated using a new and novel approach.  This shows how unevenness of data across the trial areas (differences in number of herds, time spent culling  and levels of disease between experimental areas) historically resulted in unfounded claims for a disease benefit from badger culling.

Diagnostic Flaws: Analysing total reactor datasets (all data) reflecting new infection detection accurately, shows that no effect of badger culling was found.

Saturation Effect: The research identifies a ‘mathematical saturation’ effect which is likely a result of multiple unmodelled disease recurrence (from bTB undetected in cattle herds wrongly determined as TB-Free), rather than any disease control effect.

Implications and Next Steps

The study concludes that current bTB control interventions rely on mis-specified analysis. This has led to costly and ecologically disruptive policies that have no public or animal health benefits. Very large numbers of government, and government funded scientists have based studies on the original reported results and are unwilling to accept their work over the last 20 years may have been completely misdirected.

Professor Torgerson urges policymakers to shift toward structurally sound, evidence-based strategies. The complete preprint and contact details for Professor Torgerson are available via bioRxiv.